Extreme weather phenomena—heatwaves, drought, heavy rainfall, and floods—have become increasingly prevalent over recent decades, significantly reshaping Romania’s agricultural landscape. In a context where climate change is becoming more pronounced, a comprehensive study on the quality of common wheat (Triticum aestivum) reveals major implications for the country's food security and agroeconomic stability.
A Snapshot of Romania’s Agricultural Climate (2000–2014)
Over a 15-year period, between 2000 and 2014, an impressive sample of 11,086 common wheat specimens was analyzed to determine the relationship between climatic factors and grain moisture content—a critical parameter for storage, processing, and the nutritional value of the final product. The study focused on correlating meteorological parameters (air temperature and precipitation) with the physicochemical properties of wheat, including test weight, Hagberg falling number, protein and gluten content, gluten index, and the incidence of grains affected by the Fusarium pathogen.
Climate as a Determinant of Quality
The results reveal a direct link between climatic conditions and wheat quality. The years 2000, 2007, and 2012 were marked by severe drought and extreme temperatures, while 2004, 2005, and 2010 experienced excessive rainfall and flooding, followed by arid episodes. These events caused major disruptions in agricultural output, affecting not only the quantity but also the quality of the harvest.
Specifically, a negative correlation was observed between moisture content and test weight or the Hagberg falling number—both key indicators of baking quality. In contrast, higher moisture content was associated with increased gluten index values and a higher incidence of grains infected with Fusarium, raising concerns about food safety.
Wheat Quality Map: North–South Contrast
Regional analysis revealed a distinct geographical distribution of grain moisture content. The northern and central regions—Transylvania and northern Moldova—recorded higher moisture levels due to a relatively cool and humid climate. In contrast, the southern areas (the Oltenia Plain, the Southern Plain, and Dobrogea) experienced significantly lower moisture levels, a direct result of higher temperatures and reduced precipitation.
Implications for the Agri-Food Chain
Qualitative and quantitative variations in wheat yields have induced instability in the agri-food supply chain, contributing to increased production costs and price volatility. These realities affect farmers, processors, and end consumers alike, heightening the vulnerability of the food system in the face of climate crises.
From Research to Strategy: A Basis for Adaptation
The significance of these findings transcends Romania’s borders. The proposed model can be applied to other European countries facing similar climatic conditions during the analyzed period. In the context of climate projections toward 2100, which indicate a higher frequency of extreme events, this information becomes essential for designing resilient agricultural policies.
This research provides a valuable scientific foundation for policymakers, farmers, traders, and processors, supporting the development of adaptation strategies and measures to mitigate the effects of climate change on the agri-food sector.
Acknowledgments
This research was funded through the Nucleu Program (Grant No. PN 23 01 03 04, ongoing from 2023 to 2026) by the Ministry of Research, Innovation and Digitalization and the National Authority for Research, as well as through the National Grain Grading Program (grants between 2000 and 2014) by the Ministry of Agriculture (Forestry) and Rural Development.
The authors of this study express their gratitude to the Ministry of Agriculture (County Agricultural Directorates) for grain sampling, INCDBA–IBA Bucharest for grain testing, and Meteo-Romania and the World Bank – CCKP for providing meteorological data.
Valeria Gagiu, Cristian Mihai Pomohaci, Elena Mateescu, Nastasia Belc (2025). CLIMATE CHANGE AND WHEAT QUALITY: A STUDY OF MOISTURE CONTENT IN COMMON WHEAT IN ROMANIA DURING 2000 - 2014. Journal of Hygienic Engineering and Design, vol. 51, pp. 11-25. Available online: https://keypublishing.org/jhed/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/1.-Full-Paper-Valeria-Gagiu.pdf (published on 30 June 2025).